All Eyes on Argos

Special Situations Portfolio Update – Argos Therapeutics

For those of you participating in our current cancer treatment play (“One Little Shot to Kill Cancer Dead“), tomorrow is an important day. One of the three stocks we recommend in that bundle – Argos Therapeutics (ARGS) – is releasing its fourth quarter and full-year earnings results after the market closes on Tuesday, March 29th. 

We don’t know if the news is going to be good or bad, but we do know based on the performance of its stock the expectation is clearly positive. Since trading below $5 as recently as three weeks ago its share price has jumped above $6; an increase of more than 40% since we first added it to our portfolio on February 29th.

Usually rapid appreciation in a stock the week before an earnings release means good news is on the way,  and so far the company has been signalling just that. It recently raised equity among a small group of institutional investors, something it would have had a very difficult time doing if bad news was on the way. We can safely assume this group of sophisticated investors would have insisted on looking at the books before committing up to $60 million, and if that didn’t look good then they would have waited until after the announcement was made to lock in their buy price.

And just last week Argos announced it will be starting a new phase of clinical trials for its AGS-003 treatment for stage-3 non-small cell lung cancer. If the first phase had been unsuccessful then its doubtful a second phase of testing would have been requested, so this also bodes well for tomorrow’s announcement. 

However, more important than last year’s operating performance will be any forward looking statements accompanying tomorrow’s earnings release, as Argos has never been profitable and is not judged by conventional financial metrics. It is a pure play on the future of cancer treatment, so any comments suggesting it will be making substantive movement in that direction in the near term should be met enthusiastically by the stock market.

by Jim Pearce


Next Wave Portfolio Update—Competition in the Cloud

By Rob DeFrancesco

Enticed by the ease of use, lower costs and attractive return on investment associated with cloud-based software, organizations of all sizes these days are clamoring for more solutions sold on a subscription basis. The massive shift to the cloud is causing a lot of disruption across the software industry, meaning there’s plenty of market share out there for the taking. That’s good news for pure-play cloud software vendors such as Next Wave Portfolio holdings Workday (WDAY) and Marketo (MKTO), both of which have been winning a lot of deals against the legacy players.

The established vendors of on-premise solutions (where customers pay for the software up front)—mainly Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) — aren’t going away anytime soon. On the latest Oracle earnings conference call, CEO Safra Catz acknowledged that “the move to the cloud is a generational shift in technology that is the biggest and most important opportunity” in the company’s history.

The legacy vendors are putting up quite a competitive fight, offering re-architected cloud versions of their on-premise software and using pricing as a weapon. Oracle and SAP definitely don’t like having to give up their lucrative annual maintenance contracts sold in conjunction with their on-premise solutions, but what they really don’t like is losing customers to cloud-based vendors.

On the fourth quarter earnings conference call from Marketo, a provider of cloud-based marketing automation software, CEO Phil Fernandez said a new level of “desperate price competition” had emerged from the large vendors, with some even giving away certain products to try to delay or block the closing of competitive deals.

Oracle, Marketo’s top enterprise competitor, is infamous for its harsh pricing tactics. Oracle would rather sign an unprofitable contract for a specific piece of software than lose the account altogether. Legacy vendors often find short-term success with that level of fierce price competition. But customers are smart enough to know that superior technology eventually wins out, and ends up costing less over the long run simply because everything works better.

There’s a lot more innovation going on among the cloud vendors, especially because they have a real incentive to grow their businesses and gain market share. Meanwhile, the legacy players are just trying to keep customers from fleeing by offering cloud versions that are just good enough.

Even with Oracle’s recent panic-driven pricing strategies, Marketo continues to perform well, with fourth quarter revenue of $58.2 million advancing 37%, driven by subscription and support revenue growth of 40%. Calculated billings rose 31% to $68.1 million. Deferred revenue of $92 million advanced 46% year over year and 12% sequentially.

In the December quarter, Marketo added 251 new accounts, bringing its total customer base to 4,550. New customer acquisitions in the latest quarter were broadly and diversely balanced across business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) accounts. For sales into the installed base, Marketo saw divisional expansions, increased cross-selling of additional solutions and overall usage growth. Its average annual revenue per customer of just over $48,000 was up 14% from the year-ago level.

For 2016, Marketo expects revenue to come in at $267 million to $277 million, indicating growth of 27% to 32%. At the recent market cap of $831 million, Marketo trades at just three times the 2016 consensus revenue estimate of $272.7 million. Taking into consideration cash & investments on the balance sheet totaling $107.2 million (the company has no debt), the forward revenue multiple falls to 2.6x.

When it comes to Workday, the company is experiencing improving win rates against the legacy players. While big wins (organizations with 10,000+ employees) are important because they represent excellent reference accounts used to show potential customers that Workday’s solutions actually work in the real world, the company’s run-rate business with smaller enterprises (roughly 1,000 to 3,000 employees) is critical because it provides a steady stream of revenue from quarter to quarter.

Workday has plenty of room for continued market share gains in its two targeted software segments in the cloud: human capital management (HCM) and financials. Workday ended the latest quarter with a total of 1,181 customers, representing less than 5% penetration into the overall addressable market of 25,000+ potential customers worldwide.

In HCM, Workday is getting good traction with add-on modules covering payroll/time management (500+ customers), recruiting (500+ customers) and expense management (300 customers). The new learning/training management module already has 50 customers lined up.

On the financials side, it took Workday six years to reach 100 customers and just one year to add the latest 100 accounts. Workday CEO Aneel Bhusri says the company’s financial management solutions are mirroring where its HR offerings were three to four years ago. With demand for financials having reached a tipping point, Workday expects the pace of customer additions and expansions to pick up in the current fiscal year.

At Workday’s recent market cap of $13.8 billion, the stock trades at 8.9 times the fiscal 2017 (ending January) consensus revenue estimate of $1.55 billion (representing growth of 33.2%). Including net cash on the balance sheet of $1.46 billion, the forward revenue multiple dips to 8x.

Marketo and Workday are rated as a ‘Buy’ in the Next Wave Portfolio.


Emerging Biotech Investment System (EBIS) Update

By J. Duarte MD

In this issue:

  • The Big Picture: The Countdown Is On
  • In Depth: New EBIS Pick:  Whitewave Foods (WWAV) – Food. Science. Momentum.
  • Special Situation Trading Portfolio: Biotech ETF Short Term Trade Details
  • Long Term Holding EBIS Portfolio:  Meridian buys Pediatric Blood Lead Testing Magellan Diagnostics
  • News and Analysis: Biotech Feels IPO Pinch
  • Shopping List

The Big Picture: The Countdown Is On

The stock market’s rally seems to be losing steam, but it’s anyone’s guess as to when a major top and a significant decline will actually develop.  Much of what goes on regarding prices will likely revolve around earnings and what the Federal Reserve says and does in the next few weeks.  To be sure, there are some Federal Reserve governors that are openly calling for higher interest rates, despite a fairly benign statement from the central bank after its most recent meeting. This, to us, is a sign of confusion inside the halls of the Eccles building, where the Fed is housed. Confusion at the Fed can’t be a good thing for the markets, and for the economy as a whole at some point down the road, unless it’s sorted out fairly soon.

SPX chart 2016 03 24

A look at the broad market shows that the S&P 500 (SPX) has remained above its 200 day moving average, but the index rolled over on the week that ended on 3/24/16.  To be sure, this may be a pause after four weeks of huge gains, especially when measured by the number of stocks advancing over the number of stocks declining.  However, in our vault of technical analysis we did dust out some comparable periods in the past where similar markets have fizzled out.  The one that always comes up when we look at our older archives is from May of 1990 when a huge summer rally went nowhere. On that same year by October the markets were in the early stages of a 20% decline as the first Gulf War was starting to be stoked.  The historical similarities are interesting, to say the least.

We have been expecting a big move in biotech. And we have both an ETF long position via the ProShares Ultra (UBIO) ETF to balance the already open position in the Ultrashort ProShares Biotech ETF (BIS) should remain open.  The sell stop in UBIO is still $19.  We raised the sell stop on BIS to $42, where it remains.

NBI biotech index 2016 03 24

For the second week running the Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) remains troubling (chart above). Notice the area highlighted in the orange box on the lower right hand corner of our NBI chart.  The most important thing to notice is that NBI failed to rise above the 50-day moving average which is also falling and adding to the negative look of the chart.  Right below that is the Ulcer Index (UI) indicator.  As we noted last week, the UI is a measure of risk in a market with a rising UI line meaning that risk is increasing.   Just to illustrate the connection better, we’ve drawn an arrow from the failure of the NBI to rise above its 50-day moving average to the rising UI index.  Furthermore, if you compare the UI on the NBI chart to the UI on the SPX chart, you can see the clear difference between the two, with the SPX Ulcer Index line remaining flat while the NBI Ulcer Index line is moving higher which suggests that biotech remains a tough place in which to make aggressive bets in this market.   So again, we are still holding on to the short biotech ETF position (BIS) as insurance as a hedge against the highly speculative long ETF (UBIO) position.

So just to put things in perspective, the S & P 500 rallied over the past four weeks. The Nasdaq Biotech Index did not, and now that SPX is looking as if it needs a breather, NBI delivered a fairly noticeable technical failure.  In other words, remaining cautios and having a few options is what success in this market is all about.

Consider the following:

  1. Broaden your horizons while maintaining a biotech focus.   Think in terms of your individual holdings and of how these companies use science and technology to develop, test and manufacture products.  Monitor each position separately. If the stocks in your portfolio hold their value there is no need to sell.  If they trip their sell stop we recommend selling.
  2. Pay attention to news items, especially as related to products, mergers, takeovers and geopolitical events. Politics may overshadow other fundamentals in the short term.  Be aware of this and follow our price guidelines.
  3. Focus on risk management and on the fundamentals of any open position. Our July 27th, 2015 update has an excellent tutorial on how you may go about doing using this ETF to hedge your portfolio. For further reading on portfolio protection techniques and risk management also consider a copy of Dr. Duarte’s “Trading Options for Dummies.”
  4. Don’t get over confident and stick with what’s working. Risk is still high in this market but a long term strategy reduces risk because of the time horizon of the expected payoff.

In Depth: Food. Science. Momentum.

The Whitewave Foods Company (WWAV):  Buy  up to $44.  Initially bought on 3/21/16 at $41. Closing price on 3/24/16 was $39.08.

In the emerging world of applied science, Whitewave Food, a spinoff from Dean Foods (DF) is prototypical of an emerging sector, that of applied science without the emphasis on electronic products such as phones and PCs.  The company harnesses the power of nature with its focus on plant based food products.  Heavy on organic and vegan choices, Whitewave is steadily increasing its market share, deploying an aggressive growth strategy, and steadily taking over the super market shelves in the U.S., China, and Europe through the aggressive use of applied science via automation, software and an emphasis on rapid research and development. 

If you’ve seen Horizon organic milk, Silk almond milk, tried a So Delicious snack or had a Vega protein shake you’ve experienced a Whitewave product. But what makes this a huge applied science play is the $10 million Louisville, Colorado research and development center where the products are developed and tested.  A recent web search we ran just out of curiosity turned up Whitewave job listing that were mostly concentrated in software development, IT and supply management as well as machinery and tool repairs.  This confirms two things: The company is expanding, and its focus is on technology in order to speed up its research, development, marketing cycle and its supply chain.   This type of attention to detail and heavy leaning on a scientific process that incorporates multiple disciplines has led the company to rapid growth via organic development (sorry) as well as acquisitions, including the addition of the popular Earthbound Farm products brand.  In fact, its reliance on technology allowed the company to offer fifty new products in 2015 with a goal of another 50 being released in 2015.

The healthy food segment is a pure growth play which is resurging under a different guise.  While the banner for healthy foods was carried by Whole Foods (WFM) in the past, Whitewave adds a new wrinkle; it’s as much a science company as it is a food company.  The company has also been mentioned as a possible takeover candidate over the last six months, which makes owning the stock interesting as well. 

The only sign of caution is the rising debt that the company has accrued as it expands. This, thus far, has been neutralized by its successful expansion and aggressive sales growth. 

Here are the EBIS details:

The EBIS Score for Whitewave Food (WWAV) is + 9 (BUY) based on December, 2015 data.  

  • Cash on hand: (+1) WWAV had $38 million in cash on hand in December 2015 compared to $31 million in March 2015.
  • Cash on Hand growth (year over year): (+1) The year over year cash growth was 24%.
  • Revenues (present or not): (+1) WWAV reported $1.03 billion in revenues in its December quarter compared to $911 million a year earlier.
  • Revenue growth (10% or greater): (+1) Revenues grew by 16% year over year in the December 2015 quarter.
  • Trailing Total Liabilities/Current Assets (<1=+1 , >1=0): (0) CERS has a 4.97% ratio, which means it has a lot of debt.
  • Earnings (Present or Not Present): (+1) WWAV had a $47.58 million gain in net income in its most recent quarter
  • Net Income Growth (Year over Year): (+1) WWAV grew its net income by 47% on a year to year basis
  • Products on the market: (+1) WWAV has major products on the market and is making strides in expanding its market share.
  • Pipeline Strength: (+1) WWAV has a robust and aggressive research and development program
  • Late Stage Clinical Trials and Product Launches: (+1) WWAV has 50 product launches potentially possible for 2016.

The EBIS system consists of ten fundamental criteria that are updated every quarter after the earnings results for each company are published. Each criterion gets a value of +1 or zero. A total of 8 or more points earn a Buy rating. A total of 5-7 points earn a Hold rating. Less than 5 points delivers a Sell or Avoid rating. EBIS was introduced in the June 15, 2015 issue of the Biotech Report. The stocks in this portfolio are companies with long term profits. Our goal for this portfolio is to include stocks which we expect will be held for periods of at least twelve months, but likely longer.

Long Term Holding Portfolio Update

Cerus Corp. (CERS) – Buy Range $5-$7. This stock was initially recommended and bought on 11/16/15 at $5; closing price on 3/24/16 was $5.78.

Cerus Corp. is a core long term portfolio holding. The company reported its earnings on March 8th after the close coming in with a 15 cent per share loss and $9.7 million in revenues.  Estimates were for $9.72 million in revenues and a loss of $0.16 (16 cents per share) in net income. The stock reacted well, especially in a tough period for the overall biotech sector.

Cerus is a niche play on blood testing and the neutralization of infectious agents including hepatitis, HIV, the agent that causes syphilis and other infectious agents and may be a play on the Zika virus based on case reports and recent data from the company. Cerus has a proprietary technology, the Intercept system, which is used to test blood components, plasma and platelets, for parasites and viruses and to inactivate them. Cerus has been expanding its market share steadily in the last 6-12 months, having signed key agreements for the use of Intercept with key regional blood supply agencies in the south of the United States and elsewhere. It already has a presence in Europe, Africa, and South America, which may be its most important asset at the moment.   Cerus, in our opinion, may be a focal company as the Zika virus dynamic plays out, due to its the potentially pivotal role in the prevention of blood supply contamination with resurging infectious agents.  It’s important to recognize that Cerus’s potential market is huge, estimated at $2 billion

A key future development is receiving FDA approval for the Intercept System to be used for red blood cells.  The global market for blood transfusions is huge, with over 100 million potential transfusions per year possible. Consider that there is now a huge influx of immigrants from the undeveloped world entering Europe but also increasingly the United States.   This one dynamic, when coupled with normal travel patterns of Americans to global destinations where mosquito borne diseases are not rare, raises the potential for a resurgence of infectious diseases rarely seen in the U.S., and thus their entering the blood supply. Just recently the incidence of dengue fever, a mosquito transmitted virus that can lead to heart disease has increased in the U.S. where cases have been reported in Texas as well as Hawaii. The state of Hawaii has declared a state of emergency for mosquito borne diseases including dengue fever and the newly recognized and more emergent Zika virus even though their incidence is seen as declining.  Dr. Duarte owns shares in CERS.

Meridian Biosciences (VIVO) – Buy $20-23 – Closing price on 3/24/16 was $19.56. Stock initially recommended on 6/29/15.

Shares of Meridian fell on the week that ended on 3/24/16 on a downgrade by brokerage Hilliard Lyons on valuation.  But on 3/25/16 the company announced that it bought Magellan Biosciences, a company that makes point of service blood tests that use one drop of blood to test for lead in the blood of children. The test is used in 6500 locations around the U.S. and is expected to expand Meridian’s reach into the pediatrics market for blood testing.  With lead poisoning in the news, Meridian may also tap into that market. Magellan was a leading provider of testing for Flint Michigan according to news reports.

Meridian Biosciences delivered an upside breakout on 3/18/16 as the company announced the release of a new component to its EPIK system of miRNA detection and analysis tools from wholly owned subsidiary Bioline.  This addition to the EPIK system will allow research and diagnostics users to figure out what diseases and conditions they may be dealing with via smaller samples and faster response time to results.

We’ve liked Meridian Biosciences for a while and are increasing the Buy Range on the shares to $20-$23. VIVO still has a 3.9% dividend yield and stable earnings. The longer term fundamentals are still positive given the increased likelihood of rising infectious diseases based on immigration and demographic patterns that are emerging in the U.S.

VIVO develops, manufactures, and markets diagnostic testing kits focused on gastrointestinal infections, virus detection, and parasitic illnesses. It also produces reagents and key testing and DNA and RNA amplification and enzyme related materials used in research.

Meridian delivered $47.07 million in revenues and $8.47 million, or 20 cents per share in net income for its December 2015 quarter. This was a 10.58% decrease in earnings on flat revenues. And while this sounds disappointing, it’s actually a pretty good set of results.   The company’s gross margins increased as did the amount of cash on its balance sheet, which are both excellent signs of management that is looking toward the future. Vivo also kept its quarterly dividend at 20 cents per share.   Meridian delivered a mixed earnings report on November 5, 2015, beating on revenues at $47.5 million and missing on its net income by one cent at 20 cents per share. Estimates averaged $46.64 million in revenues and 0.21 cents per share for earnings.   This was a reversal of the previous quarter. The stock paid a 20 cent dividend on 11/12/15 and yields 4.4%. Dr. Duarte owns shares in VIVO.

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) – Buy Range $50-55. Recommended and bought on 12/21/15at $55. Closing price on 3/24/16 was $53.57. Sell Stop at $46.

Special Situations: Short Term Trading Recommendations

These are stocks or ETFs that have the potential for trending profits over shorter periods of time, sometimes days, but mostly weeks to perhaps months. The fundamentals are secondary in this portfolio, which is geared for momentum type stocks.

Trading stocks are only recommended as trades based on technical analysis and momentum.   These are not stocks meant for long term holding periods.

  • Special Situation Trading stocks are not EBIS type stocks. This means that they are more volatile and that any moves by these stocks, up or down, can be very fast and treacherous.
  • Follow the trading guidelines and recommendations issued with each stock in detail.
  • Trading guidelines are not applicable to our longer term holdings in the EBIS portfolio.

Updated Recommendation Alert – ProShares UltraPro Nasdaq Biotech ETF (UBIO) – Buy $25-$27.  Stop loss $19.  This is a short term recommendation based on the possibility that the biotech sector may stage a catch up rally to the S & P 500 in the next few days to weeks. If we are correct and this rally exists, we would expect the Ultrashort Biotech ETF (BIS) position that is currently open (see below) to be stopped out.  UBIO is a leveraged ETF that rises and falls at 2X the rate of the Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI). 

Medidata Solutions Inc. (MDSO) – Buy $36-$39. Bought on 3/7/16 at $36.  Closing price on 3/24/16 was $35.73.  Sell Stop at $32.

Medidata crunches big data for health care companies at the research level. It not only has apps that help organize and study the research starting from the project stage to the clinical trial stage but it also has an app that allows patient input into the data.  The company also has a financial tracking system that lets its clients keep track of who is getting paid and how much as well as keeping trends and other financial variables in focus.  They are expected to report earnings in late April.  Revenues and earnings have been steadily rising.  In the current environment where money for health care expenses is expected to decrease, MDSO is well positioned.  Dr. Duarte owns shares in MDSO.

Rollins Inc. (ROL) – Buy at $27-29. Initially recommended and bought on 2/22/16 at $27.38. Closing price on 3/24/16 was $26.79. Sell Stop at $22.

Rollins Inc. (ROL) is well positioned for the increasing awareness of how infectious diseases are transmitted.  The stock has been steadily climbing since our recommendation on 2/22/16.  This is a very special situation with a relationship to biotechnology in the current environment. Rollins owns Orkin, the exterminating company, and could be a big beneficiary of the current health concerns regarding Zika virus. It also owns other businesses, including TruTech and Critter Control which focus on wild life control. The company also focuses on bed bug and other pest extermination. This is a highly speculative trading situation which may have a short term lifespan but may also be increasingly powerful given the current potential for the rise in incidence of parasitic and animal vector related diseases. Thus, in the current market it’s an interesting story stock to consider.

Rollins is not a cheap stock trading at 39 times past earnings. Its most recent quarter delivered modest growth in both earnings and revenues, in the 5-6% range, which although not too exciting, is likely sustainable given the nature of the business. The company continues with a steady expansion plan including the addition of several international franchises, focusing on areas with large pest populations. It continues to invest in technology, recently updating support and analysis systems and including communication and software tools to its employees in order to maximize their interaction with customers.  Dr. Duarte owns shares in ROL.

ProShares Ultrashort Biotech ETF (BIS) Bought 2/28/16 at $48. Closing price on 3/24/16 was $45.50.  Sell stop changed to $42.  Dr. Duarte owns shares in BIS.

ALERT: Raise Sell Stop to $9 on Opko Health Inc. (OPK) – Buy Range $8-$11. Bought on 2/1/16 at $8. Closing price on 3/24/16 was $11.28. This stock is in a stealth bull market.

Note: We think the market is wrong on this one as management has expanded the company through acquisitions which have already delivered profits and operating capital and that buying it now could prove to be an excellent longer term play. We are also looking to add this company to our EBIS list in the not too distant future.

Opko delivered a well received earnings report in late February that showed that the company is consolidating its recent acquisitions. It has made several advances on its current business lines and products in development as well as ongoing successes and milestone payments from collaborations from other companies.  Dr. Duarte owns shares in OPK.

News Update and Analysis:  Biotechs Feels IPO Pinch

There is a new trend in IPOs, especially for biotech companies, insiders are supporting the event.  It’s clearly a sign of a difficult economic macro-climate. But it is worth noting and keeping an eye on.  For the past several issues, we’ve noted that the market is avoiding biotech and health care stocks, as Obamacare contributes to shrink and redistribute the financial pie.

The month of March yielded five initial public offerings (IPOs) on Wall Street, a number that capped a difficult quarter that saw a total of only eight IPOs. More remarkable is the fact that all 8 were in the health care sector.  According to 24/7 Wall Street as of March 24th, “8 IPOs have priced in the U.S. so far this year, down about 76% from a year ago.”  That brings the total amount  raised to “ $700 million, down nearly 87% compared with the same period in 2015.  According to the report “last year’s IPO total came in at $30 billion on 170 offerings.”

The most recent IPO was oncology drug researcher Corvus (CRVS) raised $71 million but had to price the offering at $15, the low end of the $15-$17 dollar range.  Most interesting is the fact that some $48 million of the proceeds came from insider buying.  According to 24/7 Wall Street this is an ongoing trend.  The company was hoping to raise $80 million from the sale.  There have been two other fairly successful biotech IPOs this year, Editas Medicine (EDIT) and BeiGene (BGNE). 

The take home message is simple. Investors should start to temper their expectations when it comes to investing in health care stocks.  And while we still believe the sector is vibrant, it’s clear that we are now at a point where quality is going to overcome quantity as the most important dynamic.

Shopping List

  • Regeneron (REGN)
  • Bio-Rad Labs (BIO)
  • Amgen (AMGN)

2016 EBIS Portfolio Results:

  • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) – (Bought 5/11/15 MPP* 30.63) 1/7/16 Stopped out at $36. Return 17.63%.
  • Cambrex Corp. (CBM) Position Closed – Sell Stop Triggered at $50 on 12/18/15. Bought 10/20/15 at $44. Return 13.6%.
  • Masimo Corporation (MASI) –Buy issued July 20, 2015. (MPP: $40.65). Sell Stop triggered at $38 1/6/16. Return (-) 6.5%
  • Sirota Dental Systems (SIRO) Buy Range $104-$108. Bought 1/26/16 at $104. 2/5/16 closing price 106.57. Sell Stop hit at $98 on 2/12/18. Return (-) 5.76%.
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Trading Buy Range $96-100. Bought 2/4/16 at $96. 2/5/16 closing price $86.61. Sell stop hit at on 2/5/16 at $86. Return (-) 10.41%.
  • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) Buy Range $36-39. Bought 1/25/16 at $36. 3/4/16 Stopped out at $34 on 2/8/16.  Total return (-) 5.5%.


 2015 EBIS Portfolio Results:

  • DYAX Corp (DYAX) – Position Closed: Company taken over. Originally bought 10/7/15 at 22. 11/6/15 closing price was 34.52. Trade return: 56.9%.
  • Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) Trading Recommendation Position Closed: Stopped out at 16. Recommended 10/26/15. Buy range entered 10/26/15 at 13.22. Total Return 21%.  
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – Trading Buy triggered at 85 on 10/9/15. Trading Recommendation Position Closed: Stopped out at 100 on 11/16/15. Total Return 15%.
  • Edwards Life Sciences (EW) – (Initially recommended 10/19/15- Bought 10-27-15 at $76.50 post 2 for 1 split). Trading Position Closed: Sell Stop Triggered at $78. Return 1.96%.

Note to readers:  I am looking forward to meeting you personally at our Las Vegas Summit, May 12-13.  As an added bonus and as a special way to thank you I will be revealing a “summit only” stock recommendation in Las Vegas and as a very special bonus I will be discussing my favorite technical indicators in detail to help you in your personal trading.  Hope to see you all there and thanks for your support. And if you have a copy of “Trading Options for Dummies,” bring it and I’ll be glad to sign it.