As go commodities prices, so goes the Canadian economy.

The good news–which apparently is having a hard time finding acceptance-is that prices for the commodities Canada exports have reached their highest levels since the recession

The Bank of Canada’s Commodity Price Index shows that prices for Canadian commodity exports are at their highest level since peaking in the commodities boom before the Global Financial Crisis/Great Recession.

The BoC CPI covers 24 commodities produced in Canada and sold in world markets, including .

This is more than an energy story. Non-energy commodities, which account for 37 percent of the index, are also reaching new heights.

Included in the index are minerals and metals, such as potash, gold and nickel; forestry products, including pulp and newsprint; agricultural commodities such as cattle, canola, wheat and hogs; and fishery products.

The loonie’s depreciation–more than 5 percent since September 2013–means that commodities generally priced in US dollars would fetch more Canadian dollars for their exporters even if their prices stayed the same.

The impact on Canadians as a whole isn’t quite the same as in the pre-recession commodities boom, when record prices for oil and high prices for other resource products pushed the Canadian dollar higher, enabling Canadians broadly to participate in the windfall by increasing their purchasing power globally.

And share prices for major producers, including the 11 profiled below, have varied in their reaction, based of course on the fact that there is some significant variation in price performance among commodities.

There’s still considerable upside for those that enjoyed solid market performance, based largely on long-term fundamentals such as rising demand.

And for those that have languished there are opportunities to find value.

Portfolio Picks

The first quarter of the year is typically strong for sawlog, pulp wood and biomass producer Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN OTC: ACAZF), but the three months ended March 31, 2014, were particularly strong due to the end of a vendor-managed inventory program for its New Brunswick softwood sawlog operations, a strengthening US dollar and strong demand.

Management also noted higher prices across its product lines.

Net sales for the period were up 16.5 percent to CAD21.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 32 percent from 26 percent a year ago.

The payout ratio for the period was 63.6 percent.

Acadian’s outlook for 2014 remains positive despite what management described as a “struggling” US housing market.

Severe weather certainly led to winter slowdown, though underlying demand remains weak relative to historic norms, as traditional buyers continue to defer home purchases in the face of lower affordability, tight mortgage credit and sluggish employment growth.

At the same time, most industry observers forecast year-over-year increases in total housing starts of approximately 15 percent in 2014, with increases of the same magnitude expected for 2015.

Acadian’s key solid wood customers continue to operate at high levels. Markets for hardwood sawlogs have been positive and are expected to remain stable, while demand and pricing for hardwood pulpwood continues to be strong.

Acadian has been able to sell its softwood pulpwood production, this market continues to be challenging, but this product represents only a small portion overall sales and an even lower proportion of operating earnings.

Biomass markets are mixed due to a slowdown of export markets, with demand and pricing expected to improve over the remainder of 2014.

Acadian maintains a strong balance sheet, and management is focused on minimizing costs as this recovery continues to find its legs.

Acadian Timber, which is currently yielding 6.3 percent, is a buy under USD13.

Longtime Aggressive Holding Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF), one of the world’s leading designers, manufacturers and marketers of portable and stationary grain handling, storage and conditioning equipment, including augers, conveyor belts, storage bins and aeration equipment, is now enjoying the benefits of a healthier North American harvest after drought conditions harmed its 2011-12 results.

First-quarter trade sales were up 43.8 percent to CAD86.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA improved by 87.7 percent to CAD13.6 million, both record highs, driven by robust demand across all business lines and geographies.

Growth reflects improved US demand as dealers restock inventory used in last year’s record US corn production. International sales–which accounted for 16 percent of total sales–were CAD13.9 million, up from CAD6.1 million a year ago.

The payout ratio for the period was 62.1 percent. And Ag Growths backlog remains at record levels, ensuring strong results for the balance of 2014.

Management noted during its first-quarter conference call that the current conflict in the Ukraine is restricted to the non-farming, non-industrial eastern regions. Ag Growth’s exposure is somewhat mitigated because it only sells to large, well-capitalized commercial customers that aren’t dependent on local credit; they earn revenue in US dollars rather than the weakening local currency.

The company noted that the total prospective USD650 million of work available for bidding in Eastern Europe was stable compared to the fourth quarter of 2013.

Not strictly a natural resources producer, Ag Growth’s fortunes are nevertheless tied to ups and downs for agriculture commodities such as wheat and corn. But global fundamentals are in its favor. Ag Growth International is a buy under USD40.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF) acquired New Jersey-based General Chemical Holding Co in December 2013 for USD860 million, which essentially doubled the company’s size. First-quarter results demonstrate that the deal has indeed been transformative.

General Chemical, which manufactures sulphuric acid and other chemicals for customers operating in the water-treatment, pharmaceutical and the pulp and paper industries, added significant size, scale and scope to Chemtrade’s existing product and service platform.

The deal closed at the end of January 2014, so General Chemical contributed only two months to first-quarter results.

But Chemtrade reported revenue growth of 30.4 percent to CAD273.9 million for the period, though adjusted operating cash flow was down to CAD18 million from CAD29.6 million due to acquisition-related costs.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)–the purest indication of the ability of the underlying business to generate a profit–was up 28.4 percent to CAD45.2 million.

The payout ratio for the period was 53.6 percent.

Management noted that the full effect of the General Chemical acquisition will become even more apparent over the course of 2014 as the integration of the business and realization of cost savings progress.

Cash flow generation will help management strengthen the balance through debt reduction over time while maintaining the current distribution rate.

Increased scale provides greater exposure to a strengthening North American economy. Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund, which is currently yielding 6 percent, is a buy under USD18.

If there’s a weak spot in Natural Resources exposure it’s Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF), which owns a Quebec-based zinc refinery that is a hard-to-replace asset in the mining complex. A supply agreement in place with Glencore Canada that underpins the business expires in 2017.

Weighing on Noranda are the questions, what will the operating environment be in three years and how will distributable cash be impacted by expiration of the Glencore Canada contract.

First-quarter earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) was down 59.3 percent to CAD11.1 million due to lower zinc metal sales and by-product revenue as well as higher costs, offset by the positive impact of a weaker Canadian dollar, higher processing fees, premiums and recoveries. The payout ratio for the period was just 36.5 percent.

But weighing on Noranda are the longer-term questions, what will the operating environment be in three years and how will distributable cash be impacted by expiration of the Glencore Canada contract.

Noranda, which is yielding a tantalizing 9.3 percent at these levels, is a buy for aggressive investors up to USD6.

Best of the Rest

A selloff since a March 6, 2014, all-time high on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq has brought Methanex Corp’s (TSX: MX, NSDQ: MEOH) share price back into value range.

Management reported first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of USD255 million, up from USD245 million a year ago, though adjusted earnings per share dipped to USD1.65 from USD1.72.

Rising costs for its North American plant construction program are a concern, but management did boost the dividend by 25 percent and the payout ratio for the first quarter was just 13.3 percent.

Methanex, the world’s largest producer and supplier of methanol to North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Latin America, occupies a dominant position in a vital industry.

Approximately two-thirds of all methanol demand is used to produce traditional chemical derivatives, including formaldehyde, acetic acid and a variety of other chemicals that form the basis of a large number of chemical derivatives for which demand is influenced by levels of global economic activity.

The remaining one-third of methanol demand comes from energy-related applications.

There has been strong demand growth for direct methanol blending into gasoline, as a feedstock in the production of dimethyl ether (DME), which can be blended with liquefied petroleum gas for use in household cooking and heating, and in the production of biodiesel.

Methanol is also used to produce methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), a gasoline component, and an emerging application is for methanol demand into olefins.

Methanex declared its first dividend in July 2002 at CAD0.0 per share. It’s raised the quarterly payout nine times since, including three times since the end of the Great Financial Crisis, during which it held the dividend steady. The company has never cut its payout.

Methanex is a buy for consistent income and long-term growth under USD65.

Canfor Pulp Products Inc (TSX: CFX, OTC: CFPUF), like Acadian Timber, is tied to the housing market, primarily the US version.

And it appears we’re still in the early stages of an extended recovery in US housing. Housing starts averaged 930,000 over the past 15 months, well below the demographically sustainable 1.4 million to 1.5 million. And US lumber prices in 2013 were slightly higher than in 2005. Considering that 2013 housing starts were 926,000 and 2005 housing starts were 2.1 million, this bodes well for lumber prices over the longer term, particularly as the US recovery gains steam.

First-quarter sales were up 4.1 percent to CAD226.4 million, while net income surged to CAD25.7 million, or CAD0.36 per share, from CAD10.9 million, or CAD0.15 per share, a year ago. The payout ratio for the period was 13.5 percent.

Management raised the dividend by 25 percent.

Canfor Pulp’s low-cost structure in the manufacture of bleached softwood kraft pulp, its strong balance sheet and excellent free cash flow position it well to add assets, buy back stock and/or boost the dividend again over the next 12 months. Canfor Pulp Products is a solid buy under USD13.

Russel Metals Inc (TSX: RUS, OTC: RUSMF) distributes and processes metal products such as pipe for oil and gas drilling and I-beams for construction. The company has recovered nicely from a near-death experience during the Great Financial Crisis, its quick recovery driven by a disciplined approach to capital investment and business expansion.

US industrial production gains in February and March, despite a slight downturn in April, suggest manufacturing is on a sustainably positive trend. And Russel’s performance is highly correlated to US industrial production.

First-quarter revenue was up 12.4 percent to CAD924 million, while earnings surged by 31.8 percent to CAD29 million, or CAD0.47 percent. Steel distribution sales grew by 19 percent, energy products by 14 percent and metals services by 9 percent.

The payout ratio for the period was 76.1 percent. Russel Metal is a buy under USD30.

Aggressive Turnaround Bets

Cameco Corp (TSX: CCO, NYSE: CCJ) is Canada’s largest uranium miner. Uranium prices slumped and have remained down following delays in restarting Japan’s fleet of nuclear reactors in the wake of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami that crippled Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc’s (Japan: 9501, OTC: TKECF, ADR: TKECY) Fukushima Dai-Ichi power station.

CEO Tim Gitzel recently noted that the company doesn’t expect a recovery in prices for the raw material in nuclear-reactor fuel for at least a year. “The next 12 to 18 months, we think, will be tough,” Mr. Gitzel said in an interview with Bloomberg New Service.

Management’s focus is on managing costs through this period so it’s able to take advantage of a market rebound.

First-quarter sales were down 5.6 percent to CAD419 million, though gross profit improved by 13.7 percent to CAD108 million and adjusted EPS were up 28.6 percent to CAD0.09 on higher uranium sales volumes and better realized prices versus year-ago levels. The payout ratio for the period was 30.3 percent.

And mining is now underway at its key Cigar Lake project.

Cameco is a buy for aggressive investors under USD25.

First Quantum Minerals Ltd (TSX: FM, OTC: FQVLF) currently operates seven mines and is developing five projects worldwide. It currently produces copper, nickel, gold, zinc and platinum group metals (PGM). Canada’s No. 1 copper producer, First Quantum has considerable new production growth on the horizon.

Its sound financial position provides capacity to fund growth and diversification initiatives, with current expansion plans focused on high-potential, low-risk projects.

At the same time, it’s a commodities producer and is therefore susceptible to price volatility. Take first-quarter numbers.

Revenue for the period was down 10.7 percent to USD890.5 million, while comparable EPS declined to USD0.22 from USD0.32, all the result of a steep slide in commodity prices that offset solid production gains for copper, nickel, gold and PGMs and a decline in production costs.

Cash flow per share was USD0.46, and the payout ratio for the period was just 17.2 percent.

Production during the quarter totaled 113,118 metric tons of copper, 11,838 metric tons of nickel and 60,164 ounces of gold, all of which topped consensus estimates. Guidance for 2014 remains 418,000 to 444,000 metric tons of copper, 42,000 to 47,000 metric tons of nickel and 221,000 to 246,000 ounces of gold.

First Quantum is a buy under USD20.

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (TSX: POT, NYSE: POT) is the world’s largest producer of potash fertilizer by production capacity. The firm’s Canadian mines sit at the low end of the cost curve and should generate profits even if prices drop to marginal costs of production.

First-quarter sales slid by 20 percent to USD1.68 billion, while adjusted EPS were down 30.1 percent to USD0.44. Management noted that pricing and demand for its key output improved throughout the period and raised its 2014 gross margin and sales volume target ranges.

The payout ratio for the period was 79.5 percent.

Volume is set to expand significantly over the long run, as potash demand in emerging markets grows and the company fills newly installed brownfield capacity. Long-term sales volume should approach 14 million metric tons per year, up from a forecast of about 8.4 million metric tons for 2014.

The company is spending about USD8 billion to expand its potash production capacity, with operational capacity expected to reach roughly 17 million metric tons by 2015.

With the potash market showing decent momentum, Potash Corp represents good value at these levels, with a yield of 4.5 percent and a consistently growing dividend rate. Potash Corp is a buy under USD35.

Teck Resources Ltd (TSX: TCK/B, NYSE: TCK) reported that first-quarter adjusted profit declined to CAD105 million, or CAD0.18 per share, from CAD328 million, or CAD0.56 per share. Lower commodity prices, particularly for coal, offset higher volumes. The payout ratio for the period was 125 percent.

Management’s focus is on cutting costs and CAPEX. It’s also looking at boosting zinc output over the next couple years, as developing supply constraints create favorable pricing conditions.

Teck’s major output remains coal, which it exports in very large quantities via Westshore Terminals Investment Corp’s (TSX: WTE, OTC: WTSHF) facility in Vancouver to China.

Coal isn’t very popular right now, and prices have been under pressure. But volumes remain strong amid robust customer demand, particularly from China.