Analysis

While there will be no public address or state dinner, that Mr. Obama is making his first trip abroad to Ottawa illustrates the importance of the US-Canada relationship. It is, after all, the most significant bilateral trade arrangement in the world; two-way trade in goods and services amounted to more than CAD700 billion in 2006, an average of about CAD1.3 million in trade per minute across the border. The combined Canada-US market represents more than 425 million consumers with a combined GDP of more than USD11.4 trillion. Read More

Canadian banks have withstood the turmoil whipped up by the financial crisis better than their US and European peers, maintaining strong Tier 1 capital ratios and keeping their heads well above water--without a government bailout. Read More

A dozen oil and gas producer trusts cut distributions last month. Of Canadian Edge Portfolio producers, only Peyto Energy Trust (TSX: PEY-U, OTC: PEYUF) and Vermilion Energy Trust (TSX: VET-U, OTC: VETMF) have the same monthly payouts as last summer. Read More

At any time of great uncertainty, reliable guidance is worth its weight in gold. And there’s nothing like hard business numbers to provide the needed perspective and wash away the emotion that so often leads investors in the wrong direction. Read More

Remember, in times of turmoil, the hard numbers are your guide to that most important of all questions: Are your holdings’ underlying businesses still standing up to the stress tests behind this historic bear market. Only a “yes” justifies sticking with them. Read More

Like open-end funds, closed-end funds hold portfolios of securities at the discretion of the manager. They do, however, differ in one key respect. Mainly, rather than mint shares when an investor wants to buy or cancel when there’s selling, closed-end funds trade a fixed number of shares on a major exchange. You never cash out or in. You buy and sell on the exchange just as you would a common stock or trust. Read More

Major League Baseball clubs are packing the vans for trips to Arizona and Florida to begin preparations for the season ahead. That’s an auspicious sign of spring. A less inspiring sign of winter’s wane is that Canadian income and royalty trusts are beginning to issue guidance on the US treatment of their respective distributions to US-based unitholders--tax season is upon us, too. Read More

A dozen Oil and Gas producers, two Natural Resource trusts, a Business Trust and an Energy Services trust slashed distributions last month. That was a few less than December’s record level of 19 cuts. But it’s a sure indicator that some pretty ugly earnings numbers lay ahead for the fourth quarter of 2008, as well as the rest of 2009. Tread with care. Read More

At the end of the day, the goal of any stimulus plan is to excite economic activity--to boost aggregate demand. Although the direct impact of Canada’s budget on any particular sector is limited from an investor’s perspective, there are important implications for the trusts included in the Canadian Edge How They Rate coverage universe. Read More

Efforts by Mr. Harper, Mr. Flaherty and other Conservative politicians were as much about public relations in the aftermath of last fall’s economic update; business leaders as well as ordinary Canadians were disappointed with the minority government’s response to what was then a looming crisis. Significant job losses and a corresponding deterioration in consumer confidence means small government/fiscal discipline must give way to political reality. Read More

The specifics of Mr. Harper’s and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s budget proposal are not inconsequential, but the most important factor in a recovery for Canada, as well as the world, is the US response. Read More

It’s critically important to appreciate the fact that basic measures of credit conditions were at critical levels even before Lehman Brothers’ implosion. The first spike occurred in the summer of 2007, and the TED Spread moved in a wide, volatile range until it exploded after Sept. 15, 2008. Read More

Canada remains less affected than other countries by the financial crisis due to relatively conservative financial practices, which earned its banking system top honors in terms of solvency among 134 countries examined by the World Economic Forum. Read More

When fear rules the market, it really doesn’t matter what you own. Neither high yields nor strong underlying businesses will stem the tide of investor selling. Read More

Dividend cuts picked up steam in December in the Canadian Edge universe of income trusts and high-yielding corporations. Some 19 trusts trimmed distributions, including 10 energy producers and a closed-end mutual fund. Read More

Canada’s economy will contract in the first half and rebound strongly in the second for an overall growth rate of nil: That’s the current consensus projection for the country in 2009. Read More

Oil prices hit a low near USD33 a barrel last month, before rallying to close out 2008 around USD40. That capped an extraordinary year in which black gold surged from USD90 to nearly USD150 in the first half and then tumbled 70 percent-plus in the second. Read More

Pick any measure you like: The nearly 40 percent loss in the S&P 500, and greater losses in developing world markets; the junk bond meltdown; the crackup in commodity prices; the halving of oil prices; the implosion of the global financial system; or any one of a few dozen other once-unthinkable major disasters. Last year was easily the worst for the investment markets since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Read More

The goal of government largesse--Canada’s, the US, China, and countless other nations, developed and emerging--is to spur demand. But how to structure such plans is a tough nut the North American leaders are trying to crack; Harper has already confronted hostility from Parliament to his handling of the economy, and Obama’s ambition to sign a stimulus bill in the earliest stages of his presidency has met with objections from both sides of the Congressional aisle. Read More