Roger Conrad

Analyst Articles

What we have today is basically a bifurcated marketplace. In Group A, we have what investors run to when they’re deathly worried about the health of the global economy. That’s basically been the US dollar and investors’ preferred way to own it, US government-backed Treasury bonds. In Group B, on the other hand, there’s pretty much everything else, from US stocks of all stripes to emerging markets, energy and other commodities and bonds not issued by the US Treasury. Right now, fear rules and group A has the upper hand. Group B in contrast is the best buyer’s market since at least late 2002. There is danger, but there’s also staggering opportunity, and it’s selling for a song. By far, the world’s biggest and surest opportunity for outsized growth over the next decade is the need to build a new 21st century infrastructure. The opportunities are myriad, ranging from builders and operators to resource players and innovators of all manner of technology. And the players are a varied lot as well, ranging from super strong global giants to relatively small innovators. Read More

Bear markets aren’t the best time to expect immediate blockbuster gains. But they are the best possible time to build a high-quality portfolio of positions for outsized future returns. Doing just that is our primary goal for the New World 3.0 Portfolio here in its second month of operation. To date we’ve purchased nine stocks of companies tapped into what’s shaping up as the biggest investment opportunity of our lifetime: The need to construct the infrastructure needed to run a global 21st century economy. Read More

Bear markets aren’t the best time to expect immediate blockbuster gains. But they are the best possible time to build a high-quality portfolio of positions for outsized future returns. Doing just that is our primary goal for the New World 3.0 Portfolio here in its second month of operation. To date we’ve purchased nine stocks of companies tapped into what’s shaping up as the biggest investment opportunity of our lifetime: The need to construct the infrastructure needed to run a global 21st century economy. Read More

  • October 23, 2008

Trying to call a turn in the market is pretty much impossible. The evidence is right before your eyes: Each day is either one of soaring or plummeting stock prices. One day a host of folks explain why the upturn is underway and why you need to buy. The next, a new set of talking heads discuss why the market and the economy face a lot more downside. We’re not technicians, what we refer to as “tea-leaf readers.” But that doesn’t stop us from observing what others are using to make their case for what’s become obvious to us: Investors don’t have a clue right now on whether it’s time to buy or sell. Read More

VRI Portfolio stocks are chosen for their staying power as businesses. We’ve consistently warned against the penny mining situations that trade solely on speculation. Rather, our focus is on businesses set to prosper from two very long-term trends: growing scarcity of easy-to-get-to resources and the giant call on those resources from nations rapidly constructing 21st century economies. Read More

  • October 22, 2008

Warren Buffett isn’t a market-timer, and he’s admitted on numerous occasions that he’s not great at predicting short-term events. Nonetheless, from a longer-term perspective, investors would do well to follow his basic contrarian discipline of buying stocks when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy. Read More

  • October 22, 2008

When it comes to Asia, the turmoil from the credit crisis has taken us to the brink of the worst bear market in the last 35 years. The positives for the markets right now are the cheap valuations, the bearish sentiment and the efforts by governments around the world to prevent an outright collapse of the financial system. Under different circumstance, the first two would be sufficient to justify an outright “buy” recommendation, but the third holds the key. Read More

  • October 22, 2008

You can either work finding the gold or you can work selling the picks, pans and shovels to the miners. Generally speaking, it's a much wiser strategy to be a pick-and-shovel guy. And those are the companies I like the most when it comes to up-and-coming nanotech companies: FEI Company (NSDQ: FEIC, microscopy), CVD Equipment (NSDQ: CVV, solar and nanotech manufacturing equipment), Industrial Nanotech (NSDQ: INTK, advanced coatings) and Spire Corp (NSDQ: SPIR, solar turnkey manufacturing). Read More

  • October 22, 2008

Samsung (Korea: 005930) has pulled its bid for SanDisk. We thought the original $26-per-share bid, valuing the company at $5.8 billion, was generous, but management didn’t agree. Read More

  • October 21, 2008
  • Alert

On Friday, legendary investor Warren Buffett penned an op-ed piece for The New York Times entitled "Buy American. I Am." For those interested in reading the full text of that piece, I posted a link to the article on the blog At These Levels (www.attheselevels.com). Read More